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📊 Arizona · Housing Market 2026

Phoenix Housing Market Data 2026

Median prices, cap rates, rent benchmarks, and investment outlook for Phoenix, Arizona — data sourced from Zillow, HUD FMR, and Census ACS.
🔴 Weak Market Median Price:$410,000 Cap Rate:4.5% Vacancy:8.3% 12-Mo Outlook:▼ Bearish
$410,000
Median Home Price
YoY: -0.8%
4.5%
Avg Cap Rate
Cash-on-cash: 4.5%
$1,750
Median Rent (2BR/mo)
YoY: +1.5%
8.3%
Vacancy Rate
High — watch carefully
38 days
Days on Market
Moderate pace
$410,000 / 4.5%
Price / Cap Rate
🔴 Weak Market

📈 Market Analysis — Phoenix, AZ

**2026 Phoenix Market Outlook: Stabilization and Yield Compression**

The Phoenix real estate market in 20

🔮 12-Month Predictive Outlook View All Markets →

Price Trend
▼ Bearish
12-mo forecast: $406,546
Confidence: 92%
Rent Growth
→ Stable
12-mo forecast: $1,776/mo
Confidence: 90%
Emerging Score
38/100
Confidence: 92%
Price Momentum -0.8% YoY (national: +2.3%)
Days on Market 38 days (national avg: 38)
Predictions are rule-based forecasts based on price momentum, rent data, vacancy trends, and population growth. Not investment advice. See full rankings →

🏘️ Rent Breakdown — HUD Fair Market Rents

HUD Fair Market Rent represents the 40th percentile of gross rents paid by recent movers in Phoenix. Used as a benchmark for Section 8 voucher limits and rental market analysis.

Bedroom Count Monthly Rent (HUD FMR) Annual Rental Income Est. Cap Rate at Median Price
1 Bedroom $1,450/mo $17,400/yr 3.0% est.
2 Bedrooms $1,750/mo $21,000/yr 3.6% est.
3 Bedrooms $2,200/mo $26,400/yr 4.5% est.
* Estimated cap rate uses the 70% rule (30% reserved for expenses). Actual cap rates vary by property and management style.

💰 Cost of Investing in Phoenix

Cost ItemRate / AmountEst. Annual CostMonthly Cost
Property Tax 0.6% effective rate $2,542 $212/mo
Homeowners Insurance Arizona avg premium $1,500 $125/mo
Total Tax + Insurance Based on median home price of $410,000 $337/mo

These figures reflect state-level averages. Property tax rates vary by county; insurance costs vary by property type, age, and claims history. Source: Tax Foundation (2025), NAIC (2024).

⚖️ How Phoenix Compares to National Averages

Avg Cap Rate
4.5%
National avg: 5.5%
Below average
Median Home Price
$410,000
National avg: $371,696
Above national avg
Vacancy Rate
8.3%
National avg: 7.6%
Above avg vacancy
2BR Median Rent
$1,750/mo
National avg: $1,753/mo
Days on Market
38 days
National avg: 38 days
Price Growth YoY
-0.8%
National avg: +2.3%

National averages calculated across all 69 tracked US investor markets. A cap rate above the national average suggests stronger cash flow potential relative to purchase price.

Related Guides & Resources
BRRRR Strategy Guide Vacancy Rate Calculator Rental Yield Calculator Market Rankings Best Market Data Tools All Markets
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